(Spoiler: Stop Promoting the Loudest Person in the Room)
Ah, promotions. That sacred ritual where the corporate gods decide who’s worthy of the managerial throne. You’d think by now, companies would’ve cracked the code on how to pick a good manager. After all, it’s not like there’s a lack of books, seminars, and TED talks on the subject. But here we are, with businesses still making terrible choices. According to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), they’re so bad at it that they might as well be drawing names out of a hat. Yep, it’s that bad.
The Overconfidence Circus
Let’s start with the star of this mismanagement circus: self-promoters. You know the type—the ones who shout their ambition from the rooftops, confident they’re the next Steve Jobs. The problem? They’re often wrong. The NBER study found that these self-promoters tend to overestimate their people skills and emotional intelligence. And guess what happens when you put someone who thinks they’re a genius at managing people in charge? That’s right—their team’s performance goes down faster than a bad stock pick.
In fact, teams led by self-promoters performed worse than teams where managers were randomly selected. Yes, the equivalent of corporate roulette outperforms carefully curated office politics. So, maybe it’s time to stop handing promotions to the person who lobbies the hardest.
Step One: Stop Rewarding Overconfidence
Here’s the kicker—those self-promoters...they’re usually overconfident men. Now, I know you’re shocked, but stay with me here. The study shows that promoting based on who talks the loudest or flashes the most confidence is a disaster waiting to happen. Their leadership style? Think: a motivational speaker who forgot the part where they’re supposed to actually, you know, lead.
Do this instead: Take a moment, breathe, and stop rewarding overconfidence. Instead of promoting the person who never shuts up about their amazing leadership potential, how about testing their skills first? Try throwing them into a situation where they actually have to lead a small team. See if they can make it out alive. If they do, congratulations, you might have a manager! If not, well, at least you didn’t give them an entire department to tank.
Step Two: Intelligence Over Ambition (Yes, Really)
Here’s a wild idea—what if we promoted people based on their ability to make decisions and solve problems, rather than how badly they want a bigger office? The NBER research shows that two traits actually predict good managers: fluid intelligence and economic decision-making skills. I know, shocking that making decisions and solving problems might be useful for a manager.
Managers who scored high in these areas consistently led better teams. Why? Because they could delegate tasks effectively, make quick decisions, and didn’t get bogged down trying to be everyone’s best friend.
Do this instead: Want to make smarter promotional decisions? Test candidates for fluid intelligence and decision-making skills. It’s time to stop relying on gut feelings and vibes. Use IQ tests or simulations that require candidates to allocate resources and solve problems on the fly. If they pass, they’re probably manager material. If they fail, well, now you know who not to promote.
Step Three: Task Allocation—It’s a Superpower
Another revelation from the research: good managers know how to delegate tasks. Shocking, right? The best managers weren’t the ones giving inspiring speeches or cracking jokes in the break room. They were the ones who could look at their team and say, “You’re good at this, you’re better at that—now go do it.” It turns out that understanding your team’s strengths and weaknesses and allocating tasks accordingly is more valuable than charisma. Who knew?
Do this instead: Stop promoting people based on how well they manage themselves and start promoting those who can manage others. Put candidates through task allocation simulations. Give them a team and a complex project, then see how they distribute the workload. If they dump everything on the one person who always gets things done, maybe rethink that promotion.
The Peter Principle Is Still Haunting Us
If you’re still promoting people based on how good they were in their old job, congrats—you’ve fallen into the Peter Principle trap. The NBER study reinforces this classic blunder: just because someone was good at doing the work doesn’t mean they’ll be good at managing the work. Yet, here we are, promoting our top performers and then acting surprised when they crash and burn as managers. Maybe they should’ve stayed in their lane.
Do this instead: Instead of promoting someone just because they were great at their job, assess whether they’ll be great at leading others. Let’s try using a leadership trial period—give potential managers a small team to lead for a few weeks before handing them the keys to the department. Think of it as a test drive, but for managers. If they don’t crash, then maybe they’re ready.
Step Four: Don’t Fall for the “I’m Ready” Speech
In the final twist, the research shows that the most self-promoted managers were also the worst at understanding social dynamics. Those who self-identified as “great with people” scored the lowest on actual measures of emotional perceptiveness. This means that when someone starts a sentence with “I’m a people person,” you might want to prepare for impact.
Do this instead: Instead of letting employees talk their way into a promotion, make them prove it. Create assessments that measure real emotional intelligence, like reading the room or understanding team dynamics. And no, telling people to “smile more” doesn’t count.
Conclusion: Time for a Promotion Makeover
So, what have we learned? Well, it turns out that promoting based on ambition and charisma is a terrible idea. Instead, it’s time to focus on what actually matters: intelligence, decision-making, and the ability to delegate. Companies need to ditch the “he talks a good game” approach and start looking for managers who can actually lead.
By adopting smarter, skills-based assessments, companies can avoid promoting the overconfident loudmouth and start fostering better leaders. The result? Happier teams, better productivity, and far fewer cringe-worthy management meetings. You’re welcome.
Comments